The Morning: Trump’s mass deportations

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November 27, 2024

Good morning. We're covering Donald Trump's deportation plans, as well as the Israel-Lebanon cease-fire, assisted dying and 100 notable books of 2024.

Boarding an ICE jet.  John Moore/Getty Images

TRUMP'S AGENDA

Pushing people out

Imagine the population of Chicago. Then quadruple it. That's about how many unauthorized immigrants Donald Trump hopes to remove from the country: 11 million people in all.

It won't be easy. How will the government find all of these people? Where will they be held as officials process their cases? Will migrants' home countries take them back? And will lawmakers approve all the funding required for this?

The Morning is running a series on the policies that Trump and his congressional allies will try to implement next year. Today's installment will look at his mass deportation goals.

A huge operation

We already know the broad contours of Trump's plan. He wants to use the military and law enforcement to detain the millions of people who are in the United States illegally. The government will hold them in detention facilities while it inspects the facts of each case. Finally, it will fly undocumented migrants to their home countries or other places that agree to take them.

We know less about more specific details. Here are six lingering questions:

1. Who are the targets? Trump aides say they will prioritize migrants with criminal records and previous removal orders, who number in the hundreds of thousands. The federal government already knows where to find most of these people, thanks to their previous contact with law enforcement, and can quickly deport many.

The question is who comes next. Trump also wants to deport undocumented migrants with clean records (aside from the blemish of breaking the law to enter the United States). And he has said he'll go after people with Temporary Protected Status, a program that allows some migrants from specific countries to stay in the United States legally. These migrants could be harder to find and detain, especially in cities and states that call themselves sanctuaries for the undocumented. Those places have refused to cooperate with most federal deportation efforts.

2. Will courts sign off? Undocumented migrants have due process rights, so their cases typically have to work through the courts. But immigration courts have yearslong backlogs. Trump officials want to use arcane laws, like the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, to bypass this process. That will likely lead to lawsuits — similar to those that stifled Trump's first-term immigration policies.

Trump has two advantages. The courts, especially the Supreme Court, are friendlier to conservatives than they were in his first term. The Supreme Court has also ruled that the president has broad powers over immigration.

3. Where will migrants be held? Right now, officials don't have anywhere to put tens of thousands more migrants, let alone hundreds of thousands. The government will have to build, buy or lease more detention centers.

At an airport repatriation center in Guatemala.  Toya Sarno Jordan for The New York Times

4. Will other nations cooperate? Some countries, such as Venezuela, don't take deportation flights from the United States. Others might resist taking in a sudden surge of migrants, especially those with criminal records. The administration could persuade nations to cooperate with a mix of favors and threats — trade deals and tariffs — but that would require careful diplomacy.

5. Will Congress pay up? Trump's plan will cost $88 billion a year, the American Immigration Council estimates. That's nearly twice the budget of the National Institutes of Health and four times NASA's budget. Trump has suggested he'll declare an emergency to use military funds for deportations. But the plan is expensive enough that Congress will likely have to approve more spending for it, and a bill might require Democratic support to pass the Senate.

6. Will immigrants self-deport? A goal of mass deportations is to create a climate of fear among migrants, leading some to leave America on their own. We don't know how many people will do this.

Given these hurdles, Trump might not sustain the millions of deportations a year he wants. Still, he'll almost certainly succeed in deporting more people than President Biden did. After all, the country has done it before, as this chart by my colleague Ashley Wu shows:

Source: Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University | By The New York Times

The Bush and Obama administrations managed to remove 400,000 people a year at their peaks. Biden has deported fewer than 200,000 most years.

The consequences

Trump and his allies say that their plan will revitalize the economy and prioritize the rule of law. American workers "will now be offered higher wages with better benefits to fill these jobs," Stephen Miller, one of Trump's top immigration advisers, told The Times last year.

Critics say that mass deportations will cause chaos in Latino communities, as well as labor shortages in industries like agriculture, food processing and construction, leading to higher prices. They also question if the cost of mass deportations is worth it. For the same price as deporting every undocumented migrant, the American Immigration Council estimated, the United States could build almost three million homes.

For more

New York City officials are considering closing a Brooklyn shelter that houses 2,000 asylum seekers. They fear Trump may cancel the lease for the shelter, which is on federal land. Trump mentions Mexican migrant caravans to bolster his claims about the border. These groups rarely make it near the U.S.

Trump's Agenda A Morning newsletter series on the policies Donald Trump may pursue next year. Climate change Tariffs Taxes Republican priorities

THE LATEST NEWS

Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire

South of Beirut, Lebanon. Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times

Biden announced a 60-day cease-fire agreement to stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. It took effect at 4 a.m. local time. Israeli forces will withdraw from Lebanon, and Hezbollah will move its fighters north, letting hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians in both countries return home. These maps show how it will work. Benjamin Netanyahu said the truce would let Israel focus on Iran and Hamas. Thousands of displaced people have started returning to southern and eastern Lebanon. The Lebanese and Israeli militaries warned people not to return immediately to the south, where Israeli troops are still deployed. Biden, announcing the truce, pledged to keep working toward a cease-fire in Gaza and a separate agreement to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Trump's Tariffs

Trump's pledge to impose tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China — America's three biggest trading partners — could disrupt supply chains and hurt the auto industry. Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, threatened to retaliate with tariffs on the U.S.

Trump says that foreign companies will pay the tariffs. That's usually wrong. The tariff threats show that Trump is already conducting foreign policy, Peter Baker writes.

More on the Trump Administration

Trump chose Kevin Hassett, an economic adviser in his first term, to lead the White House National Economic Council, and Jamieson Greer, another former administration official, to be his top trade negotiator. Trump picked Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford physician who opposed Covid lockdowns, to run the National Institutes of Health, and Jim O'Neill to be second in command at the Department of Health and Human Services. Both have ties to Peter Thiel, a Republican donor. Trump's team is so far refusing to let the F.B.I. do security clearances for its transition members, limiting the information Biden officials can share with them. Jack Smith, the special counsel who investigated Trump, had hoped to hold a president accountable. Instead, his cases could expand presidential immunity.

More on Politics

Roy Cooper Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, a Democrat, vetoed a Republican-backed bill that would strip powers from his Democratic successor. Senator Markwayne Mullin, an Oklahoma Republican, is blocking the promotion of a general who oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Rudy Giuliani, in court to discuss his failure to turn over assets to Georgia election workers he defamed, lashed out at the judge.

Other Big Stories

Sarah Tarlow. Her husband, who suffered from a neurological illness, took his own life in central England. Andrew Testa for The New York Times

As British lawmakers prepare to vote on legalizing assisted dying for the terminally ill, an intense public discussion has unfolded. Maine has sued oil and gas companies over climate change, saying they concealed the effects of fossil fuels and contributed to the extreme weather in the state.

Opinions

Biden needs to confirm as many judges as possible before Trump assumes office to prevent him from carrying out his most extreme plans, the Editorial Board writes.

The Trump administration needs to be prepared for a bird flu pandemic, David Kessler, a former head of the F.D.A., writes.

Here's a column by Thomas Friedman on the world Trump inherits.

Last chance to save on Cooking before Thanksgiving.

Readers of The Morning: Save on a year of Cooking. Search recipes by ingredient or explore editors' picks to easily find something delicious.

MORNING READS

Bret Tobalske, University of Montana Flight Laboratory.

Wings of war: Scientists are studying hummingbirds to improve the flying abilities of combat drones.

Superbugs: Drug-resistant pathogens are prevalent in the war-torn nations of the Middle East. Researchers are trying to understand why.

New York: He was among the city's busiest shoplifters. His mother was a cop.

Lives Lived: Paul Caponigro, a renowned nature photographer, captured landscapes, deer, sunflowers and still lifes. "I knew that the forces of nature were a language," he once said. Caponigro died at 91.

SPORTS

M.L.B.: The pitcher Blake Snell, a free agent, agreed to a five-year, $182 million contract with the defending champion Dodgers.

College football: The playoff committee released its latest rankings, which solidified Boise State's place in the field and spelled trouble for the S.E.C. See the projected 12-team bracket.

N.F.L.: The Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield sued a private equity firm managed by his father and brother, accusing it of breaching a settlement deal.

ARTS AND IDEAS

The Times asked big names in culture to share Thanksgiving memories, opinions and recipes. The "Today" anchor Hoda Kotb drowns her turkey in gravy; Gwyneth Paltrow prefers her stuffing to be traditional; and Dolly Parton shares a cranberry mold recipe. See more from others including Gayle King, David Chang and Elmo.

More on culture

The staff of the Times Book Review has collated 100 notable books from 2024. See the list. The late night hosts joked about Trump's proposed tariffs. "And poor Canada is like, 'What did we do? I mean, be honest: Is this because of Drake?'" Jimmy Kimmel said.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Christopher Testani for The New York Times

Make white chicken chili, or browse more easy recipes to cook the night before Thanksgiving.

Read a mood-based guide on what to watch over Thanksgiving.

Save on these tiny stocking stuffers.

Consider this cushiony (on-sale) mattress.

Sleep better with a silky eye mask.

GAMES

Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was chlorophyll.

And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —German

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Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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