Pete and Tess
Begin forwarded message:
From: Georgia Warren | The Guardian <info@email.theguardian.com>
Date: May 23, 2024 at 12:53:31 PM EDT
To: peteandtess@gmail.com
Subject: Do you believe we're in a recession?
Reply-To: gnm.no.reply@theguardian.com
The Guardian 
What the surprising results of a Guardian poll tell us about American economic anxiety
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What the surprising results of a Guardian poll tell us about American economic anxiety | | | | | |
| Hi there,
How do you feel the US economy is going? According to most Americans, things are pretty bleak – but most Americans, as it turns out, are wrong.
We commissioned an exclusive poll this week, and the results, revealed by reporter Lauren Aratani, show that Americans' understanding of our own economy is at odds with the facts:
• 56% of us think the US is in a recession right now – though we're not
• 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high – though it's at a near 50-year low
• 72% think inflation is still increasing – but it's falling
• 49% believe the stock market is down for the year – but it's up
Of course, politics and partisanship play a large role in determining our impressions of the economy. As you would expect, Republicans are far more likely to be pessimistic about a Biden-led economy, with 81% believing we're in a recession – but more surprisingly, according to our poll, so do 61% of Democrats.
What accounts for this discrepancy between economic fact and feeling? Guardian US deputy business editor Callum Jones said in part it's because these stats don't reflect many Americans' real-world experiences: "When you pick up groceries right now, and it's still so much more expensive than it was a few years ago, you don't really think about official data showing GDP expanding and inflation fading from its peak. You think: 'How the heck did I just spend that much?'"
Guardian US labor reporter Michael Sainato wrote a fascinating piece this week exploring how economic concerns link to electoral ones in the minds of voters (Inflation, election lies and racial tension weigh on voters in Georgia swing county). Michael traveled to Peach county, Georgia – a rural county about 100 miles south of Atlanta – and told me that "the people I spoke to were frustrated, because they hear the economy is doing well and stocks are doing really well, and yes, perhaps even their own wages have risen – but when they go to the grocery store or pay bills it seems like those gains are getting taken away".
What Michael says he noticed in these conversations "is that people used that economic anxiety to reaffirm their political beliefs, each reinforcing and amplifying the other. It's not based in reality, but people are whipping themselves into tornadoes around the idea that everything is bad".
Do you feel you have a stronger handle on how the economy is actually doing? You can test your own knowledge by taking our quiz. I would also welcome hearing about your experiences: though you know we're not in a recession, does it feel to you like we are in one? Do your cost-of-living expenses run counter to the economic facts? Tell me what you are seeing in your lives and communities by emailing me: membershipeditorialus@theguardian.com.
Finally, thank you to the more than 12,000 of you who have already completed our annual reader survey. We are closing it tomorrow at 2pm ET, so last call for those who would be kind enough to give us some feedback by answering a few questions.
With thanks as ever for your readership and support,
Georgia
Georgia Warren
Interim membership editor
Guardian US
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