Confirmation bias and it’s effect on our beliefs

I have been intrigued if not terrified at times by what I see happening to America and our ideals as far as what is true and what makes America great. In my mind Truth is and should be objective. Truth should be rooted in testable facts where as Beliefs are just that, beliefs which may or may not require a foundation of facts and therefore may or may not be True. None the less, Beliefs are extremely powerful behavioral determinants and are apparently more powerful than mere facts. So when I listen to people explain their perception of realities, I look at any supporting reasoning in terms of how they interpret events through their subjective lens applying these criteria: Cause, Correlation or Coincidence. 

Topics:

Global Warming

COVID 19 pandemic

What makes America Great

 Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that can affect how people perceive and interpret cause, correlation, and coincidence. Here's how it can influence these concepts:

1. **Cause:** Confirmation bias can lead individuals to selectively seek and interpret evidence that supports their pre-existing beliefs or desired conclusions. When looking for a cause, people might focus on information that confirms what they already think or want to believe. This can result in a biased assessment of causation, as it may ignore or downplay other potential causes.

2. **Correlation:** Confirmation bias can also impact how people view correlations. If individuals have a preconceived idea or expectation about a relationship between two variables, they may be more likely to notice and remember instances that confirm their expectations while ignoring or dismissing contradictory data. This can lead to an overemphasis on perceived correlations that align with one's biases.

3. **Coincidence:** Confirmation bias can play a role in how individuals interpret coincidences. People may be more inclined to view coincidences as meaningful or supportive of their existing beliefs or superstitions. For example, if someone strongly believes in astrology, they might perceive a chance encounter with a person of a particular zodiac sign as more significant than it objectively is, attributing meaning to the coincidence due to their confirmation bias.

In summary, confirmation bias can distort the perception of cause, correlation, and coincidence by influencing how individuals collect, interpret, and remember information. It can reinforce pre-existing beliefs and hinder objective analysis by favoring data that aligns with one's existing views while dismissing contradictory evidence. This bias underscores the importance of critical thinking and a commitment to impartial evaluation when assessing causal relationships, correlations, or coincidental events.

ChatGtp 

Anna Cramling How To Win Chess Games By ATTACKING!

https://youtu.be/4jGH-nB22dA?si=YQE-JTiAWvZHER_t

As I replay this PGN, I see where you moved your Rook from a1 to e1 which you considered a mistake because  Nxe1 but not critical to your plan when you took rxf7 but it was next when black moved Qd8 to Qd5 looks like the black blunder that allows you to create the Royal Fork with Kf6  whereas if after you take rxf7 white rxf7 it eliminates your key rook and completely changes the outcome.

Reply to Anna Cramling

I feel honored that you viewed and actually responded to my comment. I’m not sure what you want to discuss but I have thoroughly enjoyed your excitement and enthusiasm in explaining your methods and I’ve copied a few move by move to try to learn by re-watching the PGN. I have also looked for any lesson plans or courses you’ve offered. I just really liked how you mapped out the basic strategy of Develop, Protect, Checks, Captures and Attacks. That concept helped me look at every move as a strategic move rather than a memorized move, which is impossible. I have started to play with a greater sense of purpose from beginning to end. I’m glad you have sponsor’s because you deserve to make a good living but I wouldn’t be buying anything. I guess I could make a donation but I would be much more prone to invest in a course where say you started with the Q4 or London and walked though each move purpose/strategy and provided the PGN so I could play it on my own board in Chess Tiger Pro. 

Again in closing, I have really been drawn in by your smile, your enthusiasm and the practicality of your methods. Also watching you and your Mom and Dad playing together shows how much the game of chess can be a family bonding experience. I can see how you could become a kind of celebrity of chess, being a guest on everything from The View to Jimmy Kimmel. You can bring the popularity of the game to a much broader audience. And why, because you make chess seem more Fun than Intimidating. Best of luck and success to you!